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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
60%
Slardar
Slardar
StoneBank · 5 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 4 games
25%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 31 game
68%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 15 games
87%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 14 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 13 games
69%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
323 picks · 208 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
299 picks · 669 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
267 picks · 125 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
260 picks · 258 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
256 picks · 695 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 596 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 508 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
240 picks · 505 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total74% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:27
Team Lynx 36%Passion UA 64%
The model gave 64% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 28:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddon7jesu
43% · 94 games48% · 103 games
Shadow FiendCrystallize
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painmellojul
49% · 157 games58% · 114 games
Dragon KnightMoonlight
Dragon Knight
Earthshaker
EarthshakerfortniteMan
53% · 147 games51% · 65 games
MarsBatyuk
Mars
44% · 53 games
SnapfireQBFY
Snapfire
58% · 63 games
Banekreker
Bane
Game 2prediction correct37:39
Team Lynx 37%Passion UA 63%
The model gave 63% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 42:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain7jesu
48% · 152 games51% · 96 games
Shadow FiendMoonlight
Shadow Fiend
Sniper
Snipermellojul
51% · 76 games53% · 75 games
MarciCrystallize
Marci
Mars
MarsfortniteMan
47% · 146 games50% · 28 games
HuskarBatyuk
Huskar
50% · 22 games
Oraclekreker
Oracle
53% · 153 games
TinyQBFY
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 74%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2