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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
strongboysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 15 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 14 games
71%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
36%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 13 games
31%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
45%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 11 games
73%

strongboys

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 14 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 12 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
ChodΣX · 12 games
67%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Ponlo · 12 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ponlo · 11 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 9 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Tobi · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
622 picks · 951 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
519 picks · 424 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 629 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
434 picks · 966 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
421 picks · 536 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 461 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
413 picks · 253 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 529 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% strongboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:11
Team Lynx 56%strongboys 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 26:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaver7jesu
42% · 85 games54% · 293 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal Beastmellojul
50% · 148 games49% · 76 games
EnigmaChodΣX
Enigma
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
48% · 226 games53% · 76 games
Razorbashka
Razor
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQBFY
50% · 184 games54% · 163 games
MarciPonlo
Marci
Omniknight
Omniknightkreker
48% · 18 games50% · 53 games
Crystal MaidenUndyne_
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct25:4
Team Lynx 56%strongboys 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 18:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa7jesu
55% · 219 games56% · 398 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterVladikTheHtiviy
52% · 97 games39% · 72 games
Lunabashka
Luna
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
56% · 157 games47% · 205 games
TimbersawChodΣX
Timbersaw
Warlock
Warlockkreker
51% · 290 games40% · 75 games
Spirit BreakerPonlo
Spirit Breaker
Ringmaster
RingmasterQBFY
58% · 254 games44% · 267 games
DisruptorUndyne_
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 59%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2