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CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Shpilitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 26 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 18 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 17 games
65%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 15 games
60%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 15 games
40%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
36%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
46%

Team Shpilit

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Solo · 5 games
20%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 3 games
67%
Marci
Marci
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Muerta
Muerta
zuyzyan · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Solo · 3 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Zarich · 3 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
zuyzyan · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
592 picks · 814 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
530 picks · 549 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
427 picks · 294 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
426 picks · 396 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1019 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 657 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 583 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
348 picks · 518 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Team Lynx
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:19
Team Lynx 67%Team Shpilit 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter7jesu
51% · 415 games47% · 413 games
BeastmasterAinkrad
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
49% · 201 game50% · 314 games
TimbersawZarich
Timbersaw
Batrider
Batridermellojul
54% · 299 games43% · 113 games
Kezzuyzyan
Kez
Tusk
Tuskkreker
50% · 511 games51% · 433 games
Shadow ShamanKyzko
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
49% · 252 games56% · 405 games
RingmasterSolo
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct56:27
Team Lynx 66%Team Shpilit 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 40:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend7jesu
56% · 202 games50% · 228 games
TimbersawZarich
Timbersaw
Void Spirit
Void Spiritmellojul
46% · 191 game50% · 212 games
Muertazuyzyan
Muerta
Axe
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
49% · 153 games49% · 405 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Tusk
Tuskkreker
48% · 423 games48% · 67 games
Nyx AssassinKyzko
Nyx Assassin
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
49% · 165 games54% · 222 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 76%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2