Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDEC Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
278 picks · 417 bans
Tidehunter
273 picks · 395 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 650 bans
Bane
242 picks · 183 bans
Weaver
231 picks · 446 bans
Lina
217 picks · 480 bans
Void Spirit
208 picks · 265 bans
Lion
207 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Team MagMa
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total64% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:27
Team MagMa 64%CDEC Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 33:44.
Game 2prediction missed27:23
Team MagMa 64%CDEC Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 37:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 64%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2