Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LBZSloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
LBZS
Medusaoften banned
MS · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
Irving · 1 game
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 1 game
Elder Titanoften banned
xiaofu · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Irving · 1 game
Tusk
CatYou · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
48 picks · 83 bans
Puck
39 picks · 94 bans
Earth Spirit
35 picks · 27 bans
Void Spirit
35 picks · 51 bans
Monkey King
28 picks · 54 bans
Phoenix
27 picks · 37 bans
Undying
25 picks · 50 bans
Ember Spirit
24 picks · 35 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% LBZS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:26
Team MagMa 50%LBZS 50%
The model gave 50% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by LBZS in 49:54.
Game 2prediction missed43:51
Team MagMa 50%LBZS 50%
The model gave 50% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by LBZS in 1:08:28.
Game 3prediction missed15:33
Team MagMa 50%LBZS 50%
The model gave 50% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by LBZS in 31:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 50%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3