The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
483 picks · 196 bans
Snapfire
383 picks · 209 bans
Mars
366 picks · 600 bans
Puck
360 picks · 879 bans
Grimstroke
333 picks · 310 bans
Tiny
327 picks · 247 bans
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 453 bans
Nyx Assassin
303 picks · 583 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total50% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:3
Team MagMa 50%Royal Never Give Up 50%
The model gave 50% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 18:27.
Game 2prediction missed8:22
Team MagMa 50%Royal Never Give Up 50%
The model gave 50% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 23:25.
Game 3prediction missed29:11
Team MagMa 50%Royal Never Give Up 50%
The model gave 50% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 30:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 50%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3