Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ybb Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 437 bans
Mars
479 picks · 697 bans
Bane
451 picks · 296 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 536 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 610 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 606 bans
Sand King
366 picks · 528 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:27
Team MagMa 60%Ybb Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 25:44.
Game 2prediction missed31:47
Team MagMa 60%Ybb Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 36:20.
Game 3prediction missed12:24
Team MagMa 60%Ybb Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 30:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 60%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3