DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTteam_monkeys-win 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DDDegen Dinosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
team_monkeys-
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
Linaoften banned
RCY · 2 games
Vengeful Spirit
albinozebra · 2 games
Chenoften banned
albinozebra · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Degen Dinos
Techies
Bloody Nine · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Skyward · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
FeelinG · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Skyward · 1 game
Clockwerk
FeelinG · 1 game
Dark Willow
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Hoodwink
FeelinG · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Skyward · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 353 bans
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 575 bans
Mars
350 picks · 530 bans
Techies
346 picks · 269 bans
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 336 bans
Batrider
328 picks · 664 bans
Hoodwink
316 picks · 190 bans
Tiny
306 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% team_monkeys-
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Degen Dinos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:6
team_monkeys- 44%Degen Dinos 56%
The model gave 56% on Degen Dinos — the game was taken by team_monkeys- in 26:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerDouble King
AlchemistSkyward
TinyRCY
Shadow DemonBloody Nine
Centaur Warrunnermonkeys-forever
Enchantressalbinozebra
Game 2prediction missed
team_monkeys- 38%Degen Dinos 62%
The model gave 62% on Degen Dinos — the game was taken by team_monkeys-.
Model check result
Model favoriteDegen Dinos · 62%
Series resultteam_monkeys- 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2