Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionTMTeam Mysterywin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cignal Ultraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Mystery
Tusk
Ponyo · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 2 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Ohaiyo · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Ohaiyo · 1 game
Cignal Ultra
Phantom Assassinsignature
Abat · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 6 games
Sand King
Jamesy · 5 games
Rikioften banned
Abat · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 4 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
407 picks · 989 bans
Mars
347 picks · 572 bans
Void Spirit
344 picks · 524 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 348 bans
Death Prophet
324 picks · 700 bans
Lion
322 picks · 176 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 223 bans
Earth Spirit
266 picks · 279 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 18%
Hero pool strength50% Cignal Ultra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Mystery
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Mystery · 50%
Series resultTeam Mystery 2:0
Series predictioncorrect