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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Tiny
Tiny
Mac · 17 games
59%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
53%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 15 games
53%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 14 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 13 games
46%

HULIGANI

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 44 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 40 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 39 games
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 38 games
58%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 38 games
55%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 35 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 34 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 34 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
492 picks · 272 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
486 picks · 552 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
466 picks · 378 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 347 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
389 picks · 333 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
357 picks · 827 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
349 picks · 848 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
333 picks · 194 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:6
Team Nemesis 35%HULIGANI 65%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 34:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
52% · 348 games46% · 238 games
Terrorbladessnovv1
Terrorblade
Windranger
Windrangerrubikon155
52% · 184 games46% · 410 games
Queen of PainMirage
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterJabz
48% · 252 games51% · 429 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Phoenix
PhoenixYamSun
46% · 251 game53% · 299 games
Rubicksayuw
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
54% · 447 games51% · 106 games
TechiesRESPECT
Techies
Game 2prediction correct18:37
Team Nemesis 36%HULIGANI 64%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 46:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomrubikon155
47% · 191 game51% · 232 games
Monkey Kingssnovv1
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainJabz
47% · 343 games46% · 162 games
DawnbreakerCorrupted
Dawnbreaker
Slardar
Slardar4nalog
54% · 284 games51% · 444 games
Ember SpiritMirage
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixYamSun
47% · 264 games57% · 487 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Ringmaster
RingmasterLelis
53% · 276 games38% · 33 games
LichRESPECT
Lich
Game 3prediction correct27:29
Team Nemesis 36%HULIGANI 64%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 45:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackJabz
52% · 220 games51% · 113 games
Alchemistssnovv1
Alchemist
Tiny
Tinyrubikon155
49% · 354 games53% · 511 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
50% · 315 games44% · 291 game
UnderlordCorrupted
Underlord
Enchantress
EnchantressYamSun
50% · 144 games50% · 295 games
RubickRESPECT
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
54% · 387 games46% · 210 games
Clockwerksayuw
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 76%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3