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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PlayTimeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 18 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 15 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 12 games
42%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
18%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
Jhocam · 10 games
50%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 9 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
86%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 6 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kuku · 5 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Gabbi · 5 games
80%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Kuku · 5 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Armel · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
JG · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
559 picks · 914 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
529 picks · 404 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 653 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
483 picks · 614 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 879 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
379 picks · 614 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 506 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
358 picks · 216 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
Team Nemesis 54%PlayTime 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muerta23savage
59% · 266 games52% · 110 games
Shadow FiendAkashi
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
TinyMac
50% · 483 games44% · 109 games
UnderlordGabbi
Underlord
Brewmaster
BrewmasterJabz
52% · 128 games49% · 268 games
PuckArmel
Puck
Windranger
WindrangerQ
46% · 238 games53% · 286 games
WarlockKuku
Warlock
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeJaunuel
52% · 40 games44% · 382 games
TuskDJ
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct24:8
Team Nemesis 54%PlayTime 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
50% · 125 games48% · 340 games
GyrocopterAkashi
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyMac
52% · 306 games46% · 165 games
Void SpiritArmel
Void Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterJabz
51% · 147 games49% · 181 game
AxeGabbi
Axe
Windranger
WindrangerQ
51% · 123 games50% · 181 game
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJaunuel
51% · 221 game52% · 55 games
Faceless VoidDJ
Faceless Void
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 59%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2