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BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PlayTimeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 14 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 13 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 12 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Jaunuel · 12 games
33%
Muerta
Muerta
Jhocam · 12 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 11 games
45%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 10 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
86%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Armel · 6 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kuku · 5 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Gabbi · 5 games
80%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Kuku · 5 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
678 picks · 841 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 578 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 429 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
476 picks · 334 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1144 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 689 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 621 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
395 picks · 1029 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% PlayTime
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Nemesis 66%PlayTime 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Nemesis 66%PlayTime 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 66%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2