ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 1:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Second Windloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 16 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 14 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Mac · 13 games
Leshrac
Mac · 12 games
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
23savage · 10 games
Pugna
NARMAN · 9 games
Sand King
Mac · 9 games
Second Wind
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 1 game
Leshrac
Beebie · 1 game
Muerta
TrazaM · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Tusk
TrazaM · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
555 picks · 743 bans
Tusk
498 picks · 356 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 645 bans
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 547 bans
Shadow Demon
378 picks · 640 bans
Gyrocopter
366 picks · 548 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 167 bans
Snapfire
354 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 29%
Hero pool strength54% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:23
Team Nemesis 94%Second Wind 6%
The model gave 94% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 39:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 94%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1