BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TBTeam Boredloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 19 games
Pangolier
Jabz · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
rubikon155 · 17 games
Clockwerk
Lelis · 13 games
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 13 games
Enchantress
YamSun · 12 games
Windranger
rubikon155 · 11 games
Team Bored
Baneoften banned
Varizh · 2 games
Hoodwink
Varizh · 2 games
Lone Druidoften banned
TraVins · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Mac · 2 games
Clockwerk
Tims · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Raven · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Raven · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
464 picks · 285 bans
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 462 bans
Mirana
301 picks · 121 bans
Dark Willow
294 picks · 128 bans
Clockwerk
290 picks · 282 bans
Bane
278 picks · 403 bans
Earth Spirit
273 picks · 405 bans
Shadow Fiend
273 picks · 575 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% Team Bored
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:13
Team Nemesis 56%Team Bored 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 47:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaJaCkky
TimbersawRaven
Nature's ProphetJabz
WindrangerTraVins
PangolierKen
PuckMac
ClockwerkJhocam
HoodwinkVarizh
Winter WyvernNARMAN
Dark WillowTims
Game 2prediction correct
Team Nemesis 60%Team Bored 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis.
Game 3prediction correct43:29
Team Nemesis 56%Team Bored 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 1:07:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosJabz
Shadow FiendTraVins
InvokerKen
SnapfireMac
AlchemistJaCkky
EnigmaRaven
TechiesNARMAN
Spirit BreakerTims
Bounty HunterJhocam
DisruptorVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 60%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3