DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team NextUpwin 1:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:0
V1dar Gamingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team NextUp
Juggernaut
7jesu · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Petushara · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
forcemajor · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Petushara · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Petushara · 1 game
Doomoften banned
forcemajor · 1 game
V1dar Gaming
Dark Willow
Groom · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
dizzying · 2 games
Luna
dizzying · 1 game
Tiny
Groom · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
270 picks · 445 bans
Phoenix
244 picks · 389 bans
Centaur Warrunner
239 picks · 322 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 203 bans
Treant Protector
195 picks · 368 bans
Nature's Prophet
192 picks · 485 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team NextUp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Team NextUp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:10
Team NextUp 63%V1dar Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 26:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling7jesu
Pudgedizzying
RazorMirage
BatriderGroom
MarsPetushara
Nature's Prophetforcemajor
Crystal Maidenjesv
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam NextUp · 75%
Series resultTeam NextUp 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1