The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Refuserloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Resiliencewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Refuser
Phoenixoften banned
Poloson · 5 games
Axeoften banned
Yang · 4 games
Muertaoften banned
Pyw · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 4 games
Tiny
Monet · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
zeal · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 3 games
Razor
zeal · 3 games
Team Resilience
Pangolieroften banned
Echo · 7 games
Sand Kingsignature
Echo · 6 games
Kezoften banned
poyoyo · 5 games
Rubick
pLAnet · 5 games
Winter Wyvern
zzq · 5 games
Earth Spirit
pLAnet · 4 games
Muertaoften banned
poyoyo · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
zzq · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
638 picks · 434 bans
Rubick
562 picks · 313 bans
Phoenix
484 picks · 588 bans
Tiny
460 picks · 391 bans
Pangolier
435 picks · 652 bans
Puck
352 picks · 1024 bans
Ember Spirit
349 picks · 534 bans
Tusk
343 picks · 303 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Team Resilience
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Team Resilience
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:29
Team Refuser 38%Team Resilience 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 33:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerMonet
Kezpoyoyo
TimbersawYang
Ember SpiritEcho
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Largoniu
WindrangerBoBoKa
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
BanePoloson
Winter Wyvernzzq
Game 2prediction correct14:43
Team Refuser 39%Team Resilience 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritPaparazi
PangolierEcho
WindrangerMonet
Alchemistpoyoyo
AxeYang
Snapfireniu
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
ClockwerkpLAnet
PhoenixPoloson
Winter Wyvernzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Resilience · 70%
Series resultTeam Resilience 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2