Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Batridersignature
Ekki · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 13 games
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Tusk
yamich · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 9 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
498 picks · 783 bans
Batrider
455 picks · 952 bans
Mars
454 picks · 716 bans
Techies
450 picks · 352 bans
Tiny
446 picks · 595 bans
Crystal Maiden
441 picks · 192 bans
Rubick
427 picks · 203 bans
Pangolier
415 picks · 705 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:15
Team Secret 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:34.
Game 2prediction missed16:39
Team Secret 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 54:42.
Game 3prediction missed13:29
Team Secret 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 52%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3