PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Rubick
Shishak · 17 games
Batridersignature
Puppey · 16 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 9 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 9 games
Lifestealersignature
Crystallis · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 7 games
AVULUS
Primal Beastoften banned
Stormstormer · 4 games
Enigmaoften banned
Xibbe · 3 games
Huskaroften banned
Ekki · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 3 games
Tusk
Ekki · 3 games
Windrangeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
434 picks · 366 bans
Hoodwink
425 picks · 462 bans
Weaver
391 picks · 839 bans
Tiny
384 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
370 picks · 765 bans
Pangolier
365 picks · 536 bans
Clockwerk
339 picks · 510 bans
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 616 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:25
Team Secret 46%AVULUS 54%
The model gave 54% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:04:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightShad
WindrangerSmiling Knight
Monkey KingAdzantick
Queen of PainStormstormer
Centaur WarrunnerTobi
BrewmasterXibbe
BatriderPuppey
EnchantressSoNNeikO
OmniknightKyzko
HoodwinkEkki
Game 2prediction correct9:33
Team Secret 43%AVULUS 57%
The model gave 57% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 23:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeShad
Naga SirenSmiling Knight
Queen of PainAdzantick
EnigmaXibbe
MiranaTobi
InvokerStormstormer
ClockwerkKyzko
EnchantressSoNNeikO
BatriderPuppey
TinyEkki
Game 3prediction correct13:31
Team Secret 44%AVULUS 56%
The model gave 56% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaShad
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Void SpiritAdzantick
PuckStormstormer
EnigmaTobi
UnderlordXibbe
RubickKyzko
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Skywrath MagePuppey
BatriderEkki
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 59%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3