Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Batridersignature
Ekki · 19 games
Rubick
Thiolicor · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 12 games
Clockwerk
Puppey · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 9 games
Brewmasteroften banned
BOOM · 8 games
Dragon Esports
Marsoften banned
Norma · 2 games
Zeusoften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Gyrocopter
paw · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Norma · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
481 picks · 222 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 678 bans
Centaur Warrunner
423 picks · 602 bans
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 381 bans
Batrider
413 picks · 745 bans
Rubick
377 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 754 bans
Dragon Knight
345 picks · 1023 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:13
Team Secret 65%Dragon Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorCrystallis
Void Spiritdualrazee
TimbersawBOOM
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
ClockwerkPuppey
Morphlingpaw
RubickShishak
Game 2prediction correct33:18
Team Secret 66%Dragon Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Lifestealerpaw
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Storm Spiritdualrazee
WeaverPuppey
SlardarNorma
Skywrath MageShishak
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 80%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2