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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Puck
Pucksignature
Puppey · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 6 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zai · 5 games
80%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
YapzOr · 4 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zai · 3 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
YapzOr · 3 games
33%

Neon Esports

Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 16 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Yopaj · 10 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Jaunuel · 10 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
44%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
455 picks · 1009 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
426 picks · 613 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 656 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
342 picks · 650 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
334 picks · 288 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
272 picks · 385 bans
60%
Monkey King
Monkey King
265 picks · 841 bans
58%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 177 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:18
Team Secret 50%Neon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 43:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMATUMBAMAN
59% · 23 games47% · 178 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Mars
MarsNisha
46% · 126 games47% · 43 games
LeshracSkem
Leshrac
Death Prophet
Death Prophetzai
49% · 126 games52% · 29 games
Legion CommanderDeth
Legion Commander
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightPuppey
57% · 77 games59% · 113 games
Nyx AssassinPlayHard
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerkYapzOr
43% · 59 games44% · 48 games
AbaddonJaunuel
Abaddon
Game 2prediction missed13:20
Team Secret 52%Neon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 26:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMATUMBAMAN
51% · 53 games60% · 24 games
GyrocopterSkem
Gyrocopter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
40% · 33 games48% · 58 games
BatriderYopaj
Batrider
Pangolier
Pangolierzai
53% · 76 games53% · 30 games
LeshracDeth
Leshrac
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPuppey
50% · 102 games47% · 115 games
TuskPlayHard
Tusk
Earthshaker
EarthshakerYapzOr
52% · 38 games49% · 75 games
OracleJaunuel
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct46:25
Team Secret 51%Neon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:01:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMATUMBAMAN
45% · 36 games51% · 66 games
Nature's ProphetSkem
Nature's Prophet
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNisha
54% · 65 games41% · 20 games
WindrangerYopaj
Windranger
Lycan
Lycanzai
52% · 29 games56% · 11 games
PugnaDeth
Pugna
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightPuppey
57% · 27 games48% · 17 games
Spirit BreakerJaunuel
Spirit Breaker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYapzOr
49% · 79 games48% · 122 games
TuskPlayHard
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 52%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3