Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Nisha · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Puppey · 2 games
Rubick
YapzOr · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
zai · 1 game
Bloodseeker
MATUMBAMAN · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 1 game
Nigma Galaxy
Bloodseeker
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 3 games
Puckoften banned
w33 · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 2 games
Iooften banned
GH · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Miracle- · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
KuroKy · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
168 picks · 388 bans
Mars
164 picks · 303 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 125 bans
Void Spirit
146 picks · 213 bans
Phoenix
129 picks · 147 bans
Keeper of the Light
112 picks · 200 bans
Nyx Assassin
112 picks · 380 bans
Rubick
107 picks · 59 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:6
Team Secret 47%Nigma Galaxy 53%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Secret in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaNisha
Phantom LancerMiracle-
Pangolierzai
Batriderw33
SlarkMATUMBAMAN
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
EnchantressPuppey
Keeper of the LightGH
Dark WillowYapzOr
GrimstrokeKuroKy
Game 2prediction missed41:16
Team Secret 46%Nigma Galaxy 54%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Secret in 43:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaMATUMBAMAN
MorphlingMiracle-
Void SpiritNisha
Doomw33
Elder Titanzai
Nature's ProphetKuroKy
RubickYapzOr
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
PuckPuppey
EarthshakerGH
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 55%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2