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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Trouble Makers Rebornloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Rubick
Rubick
Shishak · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Puppey · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 9 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 9 games
56%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Crystallis · 8 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
Puppey · 7 games
14%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 7 games
43%

Trouble Makers Reborn

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
409 picks · 346 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
406 picks · 446 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
385 picks · 826 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 872 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
355 picks · 739 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 511 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
325 picks · 499 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 551 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:2
Team Secret 66%Trouble Makers Reborn 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 13:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightShad
49% · 39 games46% · 199 games
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
Centaur Warrunner
Monkey King
Monkey KingAdzantick
59% · 30 games
Enigma
EnigmaTobi
51% · 39 games
Chen
ChenPuppey
62% · 33 games
Tusk
TuskKyzko
48% · 58 games
Game 2prediction correct42:11
Team Secret 65%Trouble Makers Reborn 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 20:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAdzantick
44% · 5 games66% · 19 games
Legion CommanderMr. Luck
Legion Commander
Spectre
SpectreShad
little data
Venomancer
VenomancerTobi
44% · 5 games
Batrider
BatriderPuppey
23% · 9 games
Omniknight
OmniknightKyzko
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 81%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2