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BetBoom Dacha · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 21 game
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Armel · 14 games
36%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
54%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Armel · 13 games
31%

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 43 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 31 game
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 17 games
65%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
bryle- · 15 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 14 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
395 picks · 190 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
309 picks · 445 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
268 picks · 450 bans
46%
Techies
Techies
258 picks · 211 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
247 picks · 403 bans
55%
Morphling
Morphling
247 picks · 452 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
243 picks · 412 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
231 picks · 445 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% TSM
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total54% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:21
Team Secret 51%TSM 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by TSM in 30:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
39% · 46 games55% · 79 games
SvenTimado
Sven
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFbz
52% · 110 games50% · 69 games
Linabryle-
Lina
Chen
ChenPuppey
52% · 23 games44% · 66 games
Dawnbreakerkasane
Dawnbreaker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
56% · 49 games52% · 53 games
Vengeful SpiritAri
Vengeful Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightyamich
48% · 62 games52% · 23 games
WarlockWhitemon
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed7:29
Team Secret 51%TSM 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by TSM in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCrystallis
57% · 78 games49% · 186 games
Templar Assassinbryle-
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
50% · 258 games51% · 172 games
Faceless VoidTimado
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierFbz
48% · 300 games45% · 108 games
Dawnbreakerkasane
Dawnbreaker
Warlock
Warlockyamich
47% · 44 games44% · 127 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightPuppey
51% · 147 games59% · 234 games
Nature's ProphetAri
Nature's Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 54%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2