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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 19 games
63%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 14 games
71%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Resolut1on · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Resolut1on · 11 games
64%

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 23 games
74%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 20 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 16 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 15 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 396 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
450 picks · 690 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
302 picks · 466 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
288 picks · 697 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 399 bans
46%
Undying
Undying
276 picks · 483 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
252 picks · 863 bans
51%
Chen
Chen
250 picks · 513 bans
62%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 21%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total62% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:27
Team Secret 56%Tundra Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallis
48% · 124 games55% · 212 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawNisha
46% · 109 games57% · 44 games
Naga SirenSkiter
Naga Siren
Pangolier
PangolierResolut1on
40% · 146 games50% · 151 game
TuskNine
Tusk
Enigma
EnigmaPuppey
53% · 109 games53% · 156 games
UndyingSaksa
Undying
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZayac
46% · 130 games51% · 55 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed12:28
Team Secret 56%Tundra Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomResolut1on
54% · 141 game44% · 90 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallis
53% · 106 games40% · 77 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderNisha
49% · 121 game54% · 38 games
Outworld DestroyerNine
Outworld Destroyer
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorPuppey
49% · 22 games52% · 350 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Marci
MarciZayac
58% · 238 games48% · 73 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 62%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2