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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 14 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
64%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
BOOM · 9 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
yamich · 9 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
MidOne · 9 games
78%
Lion
Lion
Ekki · 9 games
44%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 6 games
100%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 6 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
XinQ · 5 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Dy · 4 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 4 games
75%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Xm · 4 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Xxs · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
359 picks · 316 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 304 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 483 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
267 picks · 373 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
249 picks · 139 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
248 picks · 457 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
248 picks · 317 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
248 picks · 169 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:30
Team Secret 42%Xtreme Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkCrystallis
61% · 86 games45% · 98 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Enigma
EnigmaBOOM
49% · 77 games50% · 137 games
LeshracXm
Leshrac
Rubick
RubickPuppey
44% · 334 games50% · 104 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Doom
DoomEkki
50% · 232 games56% · 231 game
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
43% · 159 games
Death ProphetDy
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction missed30:10
Team Secret 44%Xtreme Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 27:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallis
48% · 169 games45% · 85 games
Troll WarlordAme
Troll Warlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
54% · 132 games51% · 163 games
Void SpiritXm
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderEkki
53% · 228 games56% · 270 games
MagnusXxs
Magnus
Rubick
RubickPuppey
44% · 302 games48% · 157 games
HoodwinkXinQ
Hoodwink
52% · 156 games
Crystal MaidenDy
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2