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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 19 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 14 games
79%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 12 games
42%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Moon · 12 games
58%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 12 games
92%
Tusk
Tusksignature
AhFu · 11 games
64%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 17 games
88%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 15 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 11 games
91%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 8 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
boombell · 8 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Fearless · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 171 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
345 picks · 124 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
265 picks · 441 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 523 bans
58%
Luna
Luna
247 picks · 345 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
242 picks · 248 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
241 picks · 333 bans
46%
Mars
Mars
233 picks · 408 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total53% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct57:27
Team SMG 51%Motivate.Trust Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Silencer
SilencerMoon
35% · 9 games66% · 67 games
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey KingMidOne
51% · 105 games51% · 38 games
KunkkaFearless
Kunkka
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerkpii
60% · 44 games52% · 167 games
LionQ
Lion
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAhFu
41% · 191 game45% · 179 games
Pangolierboombell
Pangolier
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRoddgeee
42% · 102 games
Game 2prediction correct35:18
Team SMG 52%Motivate.Trust Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerMidOne
49% · 55 games58% · 113 games
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Terrorblade
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMoon
50% · 89 games49% · 45 games
KunkkaFearless
Kunkka
Elder Titan
Elder Titankpii
43% · 73 games51% · 117 games
EnchantressQ
Enchantress
Pangolier
PangolierAhFu
46% · 88 games60% · 65 games
Treant Protectorboombell
Treant Protector
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRoddgeee
35% · 35 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 53%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2