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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 17 games
47%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 16 games
69%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 15 games
80%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
92%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 12 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 12 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 11 games
82%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 24 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 15 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 14 games
86%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Fearless · 10 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 10 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 9 games
89%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
348 picks · 175 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
293 picks · 107 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
262 picks · 407 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
257 picks · 507 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
256 picks · 349 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
235 picks · 332 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
225 picks · 238 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
218 picks · 471 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total56% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:28
Team SMG 52%Motivate.Trust Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMidOne
51% · 186 games41% · 67 games
LifestealerJaCkky
Lifestealer
Leshrac
LeshracMoon
49% · 163 games54% · 123 games
Storm SpiritFearless
Storm Spirit
Razor
Razorkpii
54% · 95 games46% · 207 games
MarsQ
Mars
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAhFu
61% · 60 games46% · 222 games
Lionboombell
Lion
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRoddgeee
51% · 115 games
Game 2prediction correct28:11
Team SMG 52%Motivate.Trust Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 28:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerMidOne
46% · 51 game45% · 67 games
GyrocopterJaCkky
Gyrocopter
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMoon
53% · 24 gameslittle data
TinkerFearless
Tinker
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritkpii
65% · 31 game48% · 128 games
LionQ
Lion
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRoddgeee
44% · 76 games52% · 79 games
Tidehunterboombell
Tidehunter
Elder Titan
Elder TitanAhFu
55% · 92 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 56%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2