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BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 7 games
43%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
AhFu · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
AhFu · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
20%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
20%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Roddgeee · 4 games
100%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 10 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
44%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 8 games
63%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 6 games
17%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 6 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
AlaCrity · 5 games
100%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
343 · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 978 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
373 picks · 201 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 586 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
338 picks · 363 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
298 picks · 173 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 218 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
284 picks · 623 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
273 picks · 465 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:38
Team SMG 49%Nigma Galaxy SEA 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 29:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMidOne
48% · 63 games45% · 99 games
Wraith KinginYourdreaM
Wraith King
Viper
Viperkpii
47% · 42 games53% · 11 games
Chaos KnightMeracle
Chaos Knight
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAhFu
51% · 102 games58% · 46 games
InvokerAlaCrity
Invoker
Oracle
OracleRoddgeee
43% · 91 game48% · 91 game
LionJhocam
Lion
63% · 51 game
Ancient ApparitionPoloson
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed28:39
Team SMG 53%Nigma Galaxy SEA 47%
The model gave 53% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 38:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMidOne
53% · 179 games44% · 38 games
LunainYourdreaM
Luna
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerkpii
36% · 82 games51% · 189 games
PuckAlaCrity
Puck
Snapfire
SnapfireAhFu
57% · 165 games55% · 97 games
TidehunterMeracle
Tidehunter
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRoddgeee
48% · 213 games48% · 161 game
LionJhocam
Lion
55% · 154 games
PhoenixPoloson
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 52%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2