Team SMG vs The Prime — prediction BIS · Dota 2

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BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2

result vs prediction

Team SMGwin 2:0

series probability

67%33%

probability at match start · final 2:0

The Primeloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lionsignature

Roddgeee · 10 games

60%

Enchantresssignature

AhFu · 8 games

63%

Grimstroke

AhFu · 8 games

38%

Tusk

AhFu · 8 games

50%

Beastmasteroften banned

kpii · 5 games

40%

Brewmaster

kpii · 5 games

80%

Death Prophetoften banned

Moon · 5 games

80%

Elder Titan

Roddgeee · 5 games

80%

The Prime

Ember Spiritoften banned

Azur4 · 1 game

Lion

BARBIE-Usagi · 1 game

Morphlingoften banned

Rusman · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

478 picks · 188 bans

50%

Snapfire

376 picks · 209 bans

50%

Mars

367 picks · 579 bans

49%

Puck

348 picks · 860 bans

49%

Tiny

320 picks · 247 bans

50%

Ancient Apparition

319 picks · 460 bans

57%

Grimstroke

314 picks · 293 bans

48%

Nyx Assassin

311 picks · 595 bans

58%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength60% Team SMG

Head-to-head1 – 0

Model total67% Team SMG

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct40:10

Team SMG 59%The Prime 41%

The model gave 59% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 27:19.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo