Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XERXIAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Rubick
Poloson · 18 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 15 games
Mirana
Poloson · 13 games
Tiny
Boomy · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 9 games
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Moon · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 8 games
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
697 picks · 598 bans
Disruptor
559 picks · 492 bans
Beastmaster
458 picks · 1106 bans
Doom
448 picks · 810 bans
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 1040 bans
Pangolier
385 picks · 835 bans
Enchantress
382 picks · 547 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% XERXIA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% XERXIA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:13
Team SMG 49%XERXIA 51%
The model gave 51% on XERXIA — the game was taken by Team SMG in 34:42.
Game 2prediction missed41:19
Team SMG 49%XERXIA 51%
The model gave 51% on XERXIA — the game was taken by Team SMG in 41:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteXERXIA · 51%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2