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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 9 games
22%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kyford · 7 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
kyford · 6 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 6 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 6 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 5 games
20%

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 35 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 26 games
58%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 26 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 25 games
64%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 24 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 23 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 22 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
739 picks · 319 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 590 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
593 picks · 297 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
579 picks · 742 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
555 picks · 336 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
539 picks · 510 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
512 picks · 605 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
504 picks · 739 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 51%
Hero pool strength59% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total87% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:18
Team Spirit Academy 26%HULIGANI 74%
The model gave 74% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherrubikon155
60% · 31 game55% · 156 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Lina
Lina86
36% · 50 games56% · 85 games
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
Shadow Fiend
Timbersaw
TimbersawSunshineRR
49% · 180 games50% · 122 games
Leshracerase
Leshrac
Warlock
Warlockkyford
44% · 315 games56% · 142 games
ChenRESPECT
Chen
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAidar
44% · 60 games54% · 131 game
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct16:30
Team Spirit Academy 26%HULIGANI 74%
The model gave 74% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 31:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerrubikon155
44% · 104 games49% · 149 games
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Lina
Lina86
41% · 63 games56% · 248 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Tidehunter
TidehunterSunshineRR
49% · 149 games54% · 78 games
Huskarerase
Huskar
Jakiro
Jakirokyford
49% · 400 games59% · 149 games
ChenRESPECT
Chen
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAidar
54% · 74 games45% · 166 games
Disruptorslimeyao
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 87%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2