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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academywin 2:0
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Peru Rejectsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 9 games
22%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kyford · 7 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
kyford · 6 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 6 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 5 games
20%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
86 · 5 games
60%

Peru Rejects

Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Elmisho · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 9 games
44%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 8 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Michael · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Matthew · 8 games
75%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
DarkMago · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
746 picks · 327 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
606 picks · 586 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
598 picks · 302 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
588 picks · 743 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
553 picks · 338 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
540 picks · 523 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
516 picks · 608 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
504 picks · 756 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Peru Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:15
Team Spirit Academy 32%Peru Rejects 68%
The model gave 68% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 35:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
Batriderrubikon155
46% · 227 games49% · 126 games
TimbersawDarkMago
Timbersaw
Lina
Lina86
45% · 55 games60% · 43 games
HuskarParker
Huskar
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSunshineRR
46% · 92 games53% · 37 games
VenomancerSacred
Venomancer
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAidar
55% · 23 games53% · 154 games
ClockwerkMichael
Clockwerk
Io
Iokyford
49% · 18 games54% · 55 games
DazzleElmisho
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed38:18
Team Spirit Academy 32%Peru Rejects 68%
The model gave 68% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusarubikon155
53% · 207 games50% · 350 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Tidehunter
TidehunterSunshineRR
45% · 166 games49% · 269 games
Sand KingDarkMago
Sand King
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit86
51% · 397 games50% · 136 games
Primal BeastSacred
Primal Beast
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAidar
51% · 272 games54% · 277 games
Shadow ShamanElmisho
Shadow Shaman
Jakiro
Jakirokyford
46% · 461 game51% · 471 game
TuskMichael
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 80%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2