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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winter Bearwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 8 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kyford · 7 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
kyford · 6 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 6 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 5 games
20%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
86 · 5 games
60%

Winter Bear

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 3 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Panda · 3 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kaori · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
766 picks · 354 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
572 picks · 299 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 551 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
529 picks · 392 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
513 picks · 621 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 288 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
465 picks · 737 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
454 picks · 508 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:27
Team Spirit Academy 49%Winter Bear 51%
The model gave 51% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautrubikon155
71% · 39 games40% · 53 games
Troll Warlordlegacy
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight86
51% · 193 games40% · 203 games
Ember SpiritPanda
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterSunshineRR
51% · 95 games51% · 126 games
Shadow DemonDelight
Shadow Demon
Mirana
Miranakyford
52% · 17 games
Riki
RikiAidar
54% · 38 games
Game 2prediction correct23:22
Team Spirit Academy 50%Winter Bear 50%
The model gave 50% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 44:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterrubikon155
50% · 150 games49% · 214 games
Medusalegacy
Medusa
Pangolier
Pangolier86
47% · 171 game54% · 178 games
InvokerPanda
Invoker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSunshineRR
47% · 72 games48% · 277 games
HoodwinkDelight
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskAidar
53% · 169 games
Ringmaster
Ringmasterkyford
53% · 107 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 53%
Series resultWinter Bear 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2