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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 23 games
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 17 games
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
86 · 14 games
36%
Batrider
Batridersignature
86 · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkka
86 · 12 games
25%
Largo
Largosignature
kae · 12 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 11 games
45%
Axe
Axeoften banned
kae · 8 games
50%

Yellow Submarine

Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 28 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Xakoda · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
not me · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Rain · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
not me · 15 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 14 games
50%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Shigetsu · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
463 picks · 283 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
307 picks · 133 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
307 picks · 125 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 456 bans
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
281 picks · 287 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
279 picks · 416 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
273 picks · 232 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
269 picks · 364 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total83% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:37
Team Spirit Academy 29%Yellow Submarine 71%
The model gave 71% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
Underlordkae
48% · 202 games52% · 140 games
Kezbottega
Kez
Clinkz
ClinkzKiseki
50% · 92 games47% · 88 games
LinaRain
Lina
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritDifference
52% · 173 games48% · 256 games
Centaur Warrunnermangekyou
Centaur Warrunner
Techies
Techiessaillyn
45% · 111 games59% · 46 games
PugnaXakoda
Pugna
Lion
LionAidar
57% · 113 games46% · 161 game
Dark Willowprblms
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct5:28
Team Spirit Academy 30%Yellow Submarine 70%
The model gave 70% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 27:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark Seerkae
48% · 117 games53% · 99 games
InvokerRain
Invoker
Luna
LunaKiseki
43% · 127 games50% · 183 games
Beastmastermangekyou
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
47% · 370 games52% · 158 games
Kezbottega
Kez
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsaillyn
59% · 128 games52% · 206 games
Shadow DemonXakoda
Shadow Demon
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAidar
54% · 97 games44% · 193 games
Dark Willowprblms
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 83%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2