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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9Pandasloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 26 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 24 games
58%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Collapse · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 16 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Yatoro · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 16 games
69%

9Pandas

Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 42 games
64%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 40 games
60%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 32 games
78%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 30 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 29 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 24 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Antares · 24 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
257 picks · 133 bans
43%
Pangolier
Pangolier
189 picks · 384 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
181 picks · 257 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
169 picks · 351 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 247 bans
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
168 picks · 303 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 226 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
161 picks · 95 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total83% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:17
Team Spirit 71%9Pandas 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
48% · 213 games48% · 44 games
JuggernautRAMZES666
Juggernaut
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCollapse
54% · 67 games58% · 116 games
Templar Assassinkiyotaka
Templar Assassin
Invoker
InvokerLarl
45% · 103 games51% · 59 games
KunkkaMieRo
Kunkka
Phoenix
PhoenixMira
49% · 145 games44% · 302 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMiposhka
53% · 63 games51% · 70 games
EnigmaSolo
Enigma
Game 2prediction correct40:20
Team Spirit 70%9Pandas 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
47% · 115 games63% · 8 games
Arc Wardenkiyotaka
Arc Warden
Invoker
InvokerLarl
48% · 74 games49% · 106 games
Faceless VoidRAMZES666
Faceless Void
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCollapse
42% · 52 games51% · 75 games
DawnbreakerMieRo
Dawnbreaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
51% · 67 games50% · 252 games
TinyAntares
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMiposhka
56% · 177 games49% · 44 games
WarlockSolo
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 83%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2