FISSURE Universe: Episode 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Tusksignature
rue · 22 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 19 games
Ringmastersignature
rue · 18 games
Jakirosignature
Panto · 17 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 16 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 16 games
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 15 games
Aurora Gaming
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 26 games
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 24 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 24 games
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 23 games
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
582 picks · 926 bans
Tusk
544 picks · 419 bans
Dragon Knight
493 picks · 661 bans
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 636 bans
Shadow Demon
425 picks · 928 bans
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 642 bans
Mars
380 picks · 525 bans
Warlock
370 picks · 229 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total64% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:33
Team Spirit 58%Aurora Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterYatoro
PuckLorenof
ViperCollapse
UrsaNightfall
TinyMirele
BrewmasterWs
Keeper of the LightPanto
Dark WillowMira
Tuskrue
JakiroKaori
Game 2prediction missed14:44
Team Spirit 59%Aurora Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 38:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckYatoro
AbaddonNightfall
ViperMirele
HuskarLorenof
BrewmasterCollapse
MarsWs
Ringmasterrue
Dark WillowMira
DisruptorPanto
JakiroKaori
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 64%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2