ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ban9PivoSamogonloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 40 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 26 games
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 19 games
Ban9PivoSamogon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
467 picks · 383 bans
Clockwerk
425 picks · 547 bans
Batrider
387 picks · 489 bans
Gyrocopter
377 picks · 609 bans
Lion
377 picks · 201 bans
Phoenix
366 picks · 415 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 584 bans
Beastmaster
342 picks · 867 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:10
Team Spirit 91%Ban9PivoSamogon 9%
The model gave 91% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 23:06.
Game 2prediction correct35:14
Team Spirit 91%Ban9PivoSamogon 9%
The model gave 91% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 91%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2