WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Miranasignature
Mira · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 15 games
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Tinysignature
Mira · 12 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
403 picks · 638 bans
Puck
400 picks · 994 bans
Lion
399 picks · 221 bans
Grimstroke
374 picks · 358 bans
Snapfire
351 picks · 194 bans
Tiny
308 picks · 219 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 219 bans
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 47%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:37
Team Spirit 64%beastcoast 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by beastcoast in 40:34.
Game 2prediction correct39:12
Team Spirit 64%beastcoast 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2