DreamLeague Season 19 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:1
beastcoastwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 45 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 29 games
Tiny
Larl · 27 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
Clockwerk
Mira · 19 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
992 picks · 672 bans
Tiny
662 picks · 484 bans
Nature's Prophet
596 picks · 950 bans
Tusk
560 picks · 435 bans
Snapfire
528 picks · 354 bans
Treant Protector
517 picks · 510 bans
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1138 bans
Clockwerk
487 picks · 365 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 51%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:34
Team Spirit 58%beastcoast 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by beastcoast in 54:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 58%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1