The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 27 games
Rubick
Mira · 25 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 22 games
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 21 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 19 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 19 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
409 picks · 376 bans
Hoodwink
383 picks · 429 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 533 bans
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
Weaver
335 picks · 746 bans
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 643 bans
Tiny
316 picks · 761 bans
Phoenix
309 picks · 652 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total91% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:15
Team Spirit 91%beastcoast 9%
The model gave 91% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:41.
Game 2prediction correct30:10
Team Spirit 91%beastcoast 9%
The model gave 91% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 91%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2