Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 35 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 23 games
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 18 games
Clockwerk
Mira · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 16 games
Tusksignature
Larl · 16 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 13 games
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 12 games
Rubick
Save- · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 9 games
Tiny
Save- · 9 games
Treant Protectorsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
782 picks · 525 bans
Tiny
558 picks · 401 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 443 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 574 bans
Nature's Prophet
425 picks · 674 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 290 bans
Death Prophet
388 picks · 745 bans
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 808 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total65% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:30
Team Spirit 55%BETBOOM TEAM 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackYatoro
Lone DruidPure~
PuckLarl
Death ProphetgpK~
Primal BeastCollapse
BroodmotherNightfall
RubickMiposhka
PugnaSave-
GrimstrokeMira
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
Game 2prediction correct24:18
Team Spirit 57%BETBOOM TEAM 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageYatoro
LycanNightfall
ZeusLarl
Lone DruidPure~
Primal BeastCollapse
Dragon KnightgpK~
RubickMira
PugnaSave-
SilencerMiposhka
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Game 3prediction correct38:33
Team Spirit 58%BETBOOM TEAM 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:12:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerYatoro
Naga SirenPure~
LycanCollapse
LeshracgpK~
PuckLarl
BeastmasterNightfall
LionMira
JakiroTORONTOTOKYO
UndyingMiposhka
Shadow DemonSave-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 65%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3