Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Muertasignature
rue · 37 games
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 35 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 29 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 26 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 20 games
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 19 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 32 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 28 games
Jakiro
Malady · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Quinn · 21 game
Warlocksignature
Malady · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
491 picks · 529 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 458 bans
Tusk
359 picks · 358 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 513 bans
Ringmaster
347 picks · 198 bans
Terrorblade
344 picks · 724 bans
Storm Spirit
308 picks · 460 bans
Jakiro
306 picks · 195 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 49%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total66% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:37
Team Spirit 60%Gaimin Gladiators 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:04:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightYatoro
Death ProphetQuinn
Ember SpiritLarl
AxeAce
SlardarCollapse
MarciWatson
Shadow Shamanrue
BatridertOfu
SilencerMiposhka
WarlockMalady
Game 2prediction correct21:11
Team Spirit 63%Gaimin Gladiators 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYatoro
BrewmasterAce
Monkey KingLarl
PuckQuinn
TidehunterCollapse
MarciWatson
WarlockMiposhka
MuertatOfu
Shadow Shamanrue
JakiroMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 66%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2