DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
GamerLegionloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Tusksignature
rue · 28 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 25 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 22 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 21 game
Ringmaster
rue · 21 game
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 17 games
GamerLegion
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 19 games
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 19 games
Warlock
Speeed · 16 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 15 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 15 games
Clockwerk
Bignum · 13 games
Viperoften banned
YamSun · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
637 picks · 997 bans
Tusk
530 picks · 447 bans
Centaur Warrunner
465 picks · 639 bans
Shadow Demon
446 picks · 1046 bans
Tiny
446 picks · 486 bans
Warlock
446 picks · 275 bans
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 515 bans
Mars
423 picks · 582 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed2:26
Team Spirit 55%GamerLegion 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 27:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendYatoro
WeaverYamSun
TidehunterCollapse
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
Queen of PainMirele
Storm SpiritRCY
PhoenixPanto
WarlockSpeeed
Largorue
Shadow DemonBignum
Game 2prediction correct41:16
Team Spirit 54%GamerLegion 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMirele
Void SpiritRCY
AbaddonYatoro
ViperYamSun
Dark SeerCollapse
LargoFayde
Tinyrue
BatriderSpeeed
DisruptorPanto
TuskBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2