Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
High Coast Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 8 games
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 6 games
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
Yatoro · 5 games
Disruptor
Miposhka · 4 games
High Coast Esports
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
Earth Spirit
Era · 6 games
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Supream^ · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
432 picks · 939 bans
Void Spirit
406 picks · 586 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 661 bans
Mars
336 picks · 583 bans
Earth Spirit
306 picks · 272 bans
Tusk
260 picks · 174 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 371 bans
Grimstroke
250 picks · 208 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% High Coast Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:33
Team Spirit 57%High Coast Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 43:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageYatoro
Phantom AssassinCharlie
ViperTORONTOTOKYO
Shadow FiendSupream^
Void SpiritCollapse
Dark SeerChessie
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Earth SpiritEra
TuskMira
Winter WyvernXibbe
Game 2prediction correct32:21
Team Spirit 60%High Coast Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterYatoro
SlarkCharlie
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
Queen of PainSupream^
TidehunterCollapse
MagnusChessie
Shadow DemonMira
LionEra
TuskMiposhka
Winter WyvernXibbe
Game 3prediction correct37:5
Team Spirit 57%High Coast Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautYatoro
SpectreCharlie
AxeCollapse
PuckSupream^
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
MagnusChessie
GrimstrokeMiposhka
RubickEra
LionMira
TuskXibbe
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 65%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3