DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Klim Sani4loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 12 games
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 9 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Mira · 8 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yatoro · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Miposhka · 7 games
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 7 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 7 games
Klim Sani4
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
264 picks · 432 bans
Phoenix
244 picks · 381 bans
Centaur Warrunner
243 picks · 334 bans
Tusk
216 picks · 204 bans
Muerta
210 picks · 298 bans
Dark Willow
204 picks · 100 bans
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 494 bans
Kunkka
180 picks · 506 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 59%
Hero pool strength69% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:23
Team Spirit 95%Klim Sani4 5%
The model gave 95% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:19.
Game 2prediction correct22:29
Team Spirit 95%Klim Sani4 5%
The model gave 95% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 48:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 95%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2