The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 31 game
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 21 game
Tinysignature
Mira · 20 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 17 games
Clockwerk
Mira · 16 games
Tusksignature
Larl · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 15 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 14 games
LGD Gaming
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
Tusk
NothingToSay · 10 games
Disruptorsignature
y` · 9 games
Tiny
XinQ · 9 games
Undyingoften banned
y` · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
XinQ · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
743 picks · 470 bans
Tusk
608 picks · 532 bans
Tiny
573 picks · 450 bans
Treant Protector
539 picks · 582 bans
Snapfire
399 picks · 247 bans
Nature's Prophet
396 picks · 573 bans
Death Prophet
384 picks · 596 bans
Mirana
384 picks · 361 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total60% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:25
Team Spirit 57%LGD Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaYatoro
Nature's ProphetNothingToSay
Ember SpiritLarl
Spectreshiro
MagnusCollapse
DawnbreakerELeVeN
SnapfireMira
RubickpLAnet
EnchantressMiposhka
Treant Protectory`
Game 2prediction missed9:32
Team Spirit 56%LGD Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetCollapse
Ursashiro
Drow RangerYatoro
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
PangolierLarl
SnapfireELeVeN
RubickMira
Enchantressy`
UndyingMiposhka
TuskpLAnet
Game 3prediction correct25:11
Team Spirit 55%LGD Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerYatoro
Ursashiro
Nature's ProphetCollapse
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
TinyLarl
Death ProphetELeVeN
UndyingMiposhka
Cheny`
MiranaMira
TuskpLAnet
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 60%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3