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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 22 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 21 game
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 19 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 18 games
72%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Collapse · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 16 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 16 games
63%

LGD Gaming

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 23 games
43%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 19 games
53%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
61%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 18 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
shiro · 18 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 270 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
180 picks · 382 bans
55%
Sven
Sven
176 picks · 253 bans
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
169 picks · 156 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
166 picks · 71 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
155 picks · 235 bans
48%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
150 picks · 86 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)86% vs 73%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:35
Team Spirit 62%LGD Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:16:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
53% · 51 game49% · 20 games
TinkerNothingToSay
Tinker
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
52% · 19 games50% · 46 games
Chaos Knightshiro
Chaos Knight
Kunkka
KunkkaLarl
50% · 39 games41% · 52 games
Centaur Warrunnerniu
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
51% · 47 games53% · 37 games
GrimstrokepLAnet
Grimstroke
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
50% · 24 games56% · 25 games
Ancient Apparitiony`
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct33:23
Team Spirit 62%LGD Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 47:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
45% · 145 games53% · 200 games
Doomniu
Doom
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCollapse
53% · 45 games52% · 38 games
Spectreshiro
Spectre
Kunkka
KunkkaLarl
38% · 37 games48% · 89 games
MagnusNothingToSay
Magnus
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
48% · 74 games53% · 80 games
GrimstrokepLAnet
Grimstroke
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMiposhka
53% · 121 game62% · 15 games
Witch Doctory`
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2