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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 22 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 9 games
78%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
78%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 8 games
88%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 8 games
75%
Io
Iosignature
RodjER · 7 games
86%

Natus Vincere

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
GeneRaL · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 13 games
54%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Solo · 12 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 11 games
27%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 11 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 10 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
V-Tune · 10 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
434 picks · 273 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
423 picks · 566 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
383 picks · 447 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 723 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
322 picks · 441 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 466 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
283 picks · 422 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
273 picks · 417 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total89% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:28
Team Spirit 75%Natus Vincere 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 51:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
57% · 186 games50% · 250 games
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 234 games44% · 86 games
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Phantom Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
43% · 52 games52% · 165 games
Sand Kinglaise
Sand King
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMira
48% · 122 games53% · 146 games
EnchantressSolo
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMiposhka
49% · 135 games49% · 82 games
Skywrath Mageswedenstrong
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct33:14
Team Spirit 76%Natus Vincere 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYatoro
52% · 330 games53% · 228 games
Templar AssassinV-Tune
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
64% · 131 game42% · 201 game
PuckNo[o]ne
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 291 game48% · 180 games
Dragon Knightlaise
Dragon Knight
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
53% · 89 games41% · 208 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMira
50% · 179 games49% · 203 games
Death ProphetSolo
Death Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 89%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2