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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 37 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 19 games
84%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 18 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 17 games
53%

Natus Vincere

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
swedenstrong · 10 games
60%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
V-Tune · 10 games
70%
Silencer
Silencer
Solo · 10 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
laise · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 7 games
14%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
806 picks · 568 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
585 picks · 399 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
508 picks · 418 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
474 picks · 763 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
425 picks · 870 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 302 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
366 picks · 277 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 29%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total87% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:19
Team Spirit 73%Natus Vincere 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
45% · 104 games57% · 86 games
LifestealerShigetsu
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
42% · 331 game53% · 290 games
BeastmasterMalik
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
46% · 106 games56% · 206 games
Storm Spiritmellojul
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaMira
50% · 262 games50% · 231 game
Enchantressxsvampire
Enchantress
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
48% · 265 games52% · 255 games
ClockwerkMalady
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct22:16
Team Spirit 72%Natus Vincere 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
49% · 210 games43% · 82 games
AlchemistShigetsu
Alchemist
Slark
SlarkYatoro
45% · 113 games51% · 166 games
Leshracmellojul
Leshrac
Puck
PuckLarl
58% · 195 games50% · 121 game
BroodmotherMalik
Broodmother
Mirana
MiranaMira
47% · 223 games59% · 166 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Lich
LichMiposhka
44% · 64 games49% · 270 games
Clockwerkxsvampire
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 87%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2