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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 12 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
90%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 9 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 8 games
88%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Mira · 8 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 7 games
86%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yatoro · 7 games
100%

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 16 games
63%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Malady · 10 games
30%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
mellojul · 9 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 9 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Malik · 7 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
311 picks · 458 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
278 picks · 414 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
265 picks · 445 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
243 picks · 218 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
239 picks · 133 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
232 picks · 674 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
232 picks · 325 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
230 picks · 216 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 50%
Hero pool strength66% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total94% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:41
Team Spirit 80%Natus Vincere 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:04:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
47% · 96 games49% · 143 games
Kunkkamellojul
Kunkka
Tiny
TinyLarl
56% · 267 games50% · 332 games
Primal BeastNefrit
Primal Beast
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
49% · 179 games58% · 172 games
WindrangerShigetsu
Windranger
Rubick
RubickMira
49% · 494 games48% · 211 games
LionZayac
Lion
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMiposhka
44% · 146 games48% · 324 games
SnapfireMalady
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct34:14
Team Spirit 80%Natus Vincere 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYatoro
54% · 136 games43% · 150 games
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
52% · 284 games53% · 344 games
Primal Beastmellojul
Primal Beast
Timbersaw
TimbersawCollapse
49% · 170 games49% · 43 games
SlardarNefrit
Slardar
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMiposhka
50% · 105 games54% · 363 games
BatriderZayac
Batrider
Rubick
RubickMira
43% · 372 games51% · 167 games
Vengeful SpiritMalady
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 94%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2